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NZGBS: Cheaper, US Tsys Under Pressure After Comments From Fed Williams

BONDS

In local morning trade, NZGBs are 2bps cheaper after US tsys closed near their lows, 3-7bps cheaper. US tsys remain under pressure as markets gradually price out dovish policy projections for the year.

  • Initial jobless claims were steady at 212k last week, still suggesting no uplift in trend compared to other leading indicators of job layoffs.
  • US tsys reacted negatively to comments from NY Fed Williams on the potential for a data-driven rate hike in the future. Markets may have overreacted while Williams simply stated the Fed can take its time and let well-positioned monetary policy work and let the economy continue to rebalance.
  • Speaking at an event in Florida, Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that the economy is slowing down gradually, with wage growth outpacing the inflation rate. He mentioned that the current policy is restrictive but is on the path toward the 2% inflation target, emphasising a patient approach and reiterating his view of one rate cut this year.
  • Swap rates are 1-3bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is unchanged. A cumulative 54bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • The local calendar is empty again today. The next major release is Trade Balance data for March on Wednesday.
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