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BONDS: NZGBS: Cheaper With US Tsys Ahead Of Xmas Break

BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

In local morning trade, NZGBs are flat to 3bps cheaper after a heavy NY session for US tsys. Benchmark yields finished 3-7bps higher, with the 7-year leading.

  • Meanwhile, projected US rate cuts into early 2025 were steady to slightly lower vs. yesterday’s open (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.1bp, Mar'25 -11.7bp (-13.7bp), May'25 -16.0bp (-18.8bp), Jun'25 -23.4bp (-25.3bp).
  • There was little reaction to a flurry of mixed data: November posted improved home sales figures compared with a soft October but revised New home sales came in roughly as expected at 664k on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up from 627k prior (upwardly revised from 610k). This follows data showing a 4.8% M/M increase in existing home sales in November to the highest level since March at 4.15M.
  • The headline durable goods orders figure of -1.1% M/M, the "miss" vs. -0.3% expected, was offset by an upward revision to the prior growth reading to 0.8% from 0.3%.
  • Swap rates are 3bps higher.
  • RBNZ-dated OIS pricing shows 54bps of easing for February, with a cumulative 123bps by November 2025.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty, with an early close ahead of the Christmas break.
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In local morning trade, NZGBs are flat to 3bps cheaper after a heavy NY session for US tsys. Benchmark yields finished 3-7bps higher, with the 7-year leading.

  • Meanwhile, projected US rate cuts into early 2025 were steady to slightly lower vs. yesterday’s open (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.1bp, Mar'25 -11.7bp (-13.7bp), May'25 -16.0bp (-18.8bp), Jun'25 -23.4bp (-25.3bp).
  • There was little reaction to a flurry of mixed data: November posted improved home sales figures compared with a soft October but revised New home sales came in roughly as expected at 664k on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up from 627k prior (upwardly revised from 610k). This follows data showing a 4.8% M/M increase in existing home sales in November to the highest level since March at 4.15M.
  • The headline durable goods orders figure of -1.1% M/M, the "miss" vs. -0.3% expected, was offset by an upward revision to the prior growth reading to 0.8% from 0.3%.
  • Swap rates are 3bps higher.
  • RBNZ-dated OIS pricing shows 54bps of easing for February, with a cumulative 123bps by November 2025.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty, with an early close ahead of the Christmas break.