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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessNZGBS: Closed Sharply Cheaper After Stronger-Than-Expected Labour Market Data
NZGBs closed 9-14bps cheaper on the day across benchmarks and 8-12bps cheaper than pre-jobs data levels.
- The NZ labour market continued to ease but not by as much as consensus expected for Q2. The unemployment rate rose 0.3pp to 4.6%, its highest since Q1 2021 but in line with the RBNZ’s May expectation.
- Employment growth and the participation rate were stronger than expected as were private sector wages. Public sector agreements boosted overall earnings.
- With the labour market developing broadly as the RBNZ expects and some domestic inflation still strong, it will likely want to see Q3 CPI on October 16 before cutting rates.
- Swap rates closed 9-13bps higher on the day, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
- RBNZ-dated OIS pricing closed 10-17bps firmer across meetings. The market now prices a 43% chance of a rate cut in August, down from 78% before the data release. Additionally, a cumulative 82bps of easing is anticipated by year-end, compared to 97bps previously.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see RBNZ Inflation Expectations data alongside the NZ Treasury's planned sale of NZ$275mn of the 1.5% May-31 bond, NZ$175mn of the 4.5% May-35 bond and NZ$50mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.