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NZGBS: Closed Slightly Richer, Subdued Session, Light Local Calendar Along Week

BONDS

NZGBs closed near the session’s best levels, with yields down 1bp. Benchmark yields had been 1-2bps higher in early trade following the modest negative lead-in from US tsys overnight.

  • Nevertheless, dealings were subdued with the local calendar empty today. Indeed, Friday’s release of ANZ Consumer Confidence data represents the sole release for the week.
  • The 1-2bps richening by cash US tsys in today’s Asia-Pac session likely assisted the local market’s move away from session cheaps. Today, the US calendar will see Regional Fed and Existing Home Sales data and a $69bn 2Y Note auction.
  • Swap rates closed 1-3bps lower, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 1-3bps softer for 2025 meetings. The market has a 39% chance of a 25bp cut in August priced. There is an 85% chance of a cut priced by October, with a cumulative 68bps of easing by year-end.
  • On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$300mn of the 3.0% Apr-29 bond and NZ$200mn of the 4.50% May-35 bond.
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