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NZGBS: Curve Holds Steeper After Weekly Supply ​

BONDS

The weekly NZGB auctions today displayed strong cover in the 3.0-4.0x range. Unlike last week when NZGB May-26 saw a noticeably firmer bid with a cover of 6.25x, demand was more evenly spread across the lines today. The composition of today's auction was different, with the shortest offering approximating a 5-year bond versus a 3-year bond last week.

  • With the April 6 auction coming the day after the surprise 50bp rate hike by RBNZ, firmer demand for May-26, the resultant steepening of the 2/10 cash curve, appeared linked to investors positioning for over-tightening risks and recessionary concerns.
  • While the 2/10 cash curve has only steepened by 1bp post-auction today, it should be noted that this comes after yesterday's 5bp steepening on the supply announcement.
  • After weakening into the auction, the May-51 bond has since experienced a recovery of 2bp, leaving it 1bp cheaper on the day.
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