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NZGBS: Heavy Session, US Tsys Richen In Asia-Pac Dealings

BONDS

NZGBs closed at the session’s worst levels, 8-10bps cheaper, with the 2/10 curve flatter. Today’s data drop (REINZ Home Sales and Food prices) failed to provide much of a directional catalyst for the local session.

  • NZGBs held by international investors jumped to 61.3% in December from 60.5% in November.
  • After the negative lead-in from a heavy NY session for US tsys, the local market then moved away from morning cheaps in line with the 1-3bp richening by US tsys in today’s Asia-Pac session. However, the improvement in NZGBs proved short-lived, with cash bonds finishing at their cheaps.
  • Swap rates closed 3-6bps higher, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 1-8bps firmer across meetings, with November leading. A cumulative 91bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Bloomberg reported that ANZ expects the RBNZ to deliver a steady sequence of 25bp rate cuts starting in August, which will take the Official Cash Rate to 3.5% over 12 months. (See link)
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar sees BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI and Net Migration data.
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