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NZGBS: Little Changed After The RBNZ Leaves The OCR At 5.50%

BONDS

NZGBs are little changed after the RBNZ left rates on hold at 5.50%, as expected. However, the updated forecast projections showed a slight tick higher in terms of the OCR projections. The central bank doesn't see any cuts out to the end of 2024, with an expected OCR of 5.50%, the prior forecast (in May) was 5.3%.

  • Swap rates are flat to 2bp cheaper, with the 2s10s curve flatter, after the RBNZ decision with rates flat to 2bp lower on the day.
  • RBNZ dated OIS is 3-4bp firmer for meetings beyond October after the decision. The market had attached only a 9% chance of a 25bp hike today. Terminal OCR expectations rise to 5.65%, the top of its recent range.
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