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NZGBS: Little Changed Ahead Of The RBNZ Policy Decision

BONDS

In local morning trade, NZGBs are flat to 1bp cheaper with US tsys in a holding pattern overnight ahead of US CPI data on Thursday.

  • There was brief volatility tied to Fed Chairman Powell's semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate (testimony to the House tomorrow), but he largely repeated previous messages.
  • The local market’s focus today will be on the RBNZ Policy Decision, with consensus unanimously expecting the RBNZ to keep the OCR at 5.5%. The tone of the statement is also expected to show little change.
  • However, the MPC may acknowledge the recent weak activity data but is likely to reiterate that monetary policy needs to remain "restrictive" to return inflation to target within a "reasonable timeframe", while it waits for Q2 CPI on July 17 and labour market data on August 7. The July discussion will be monitored to see if a hike was discussed again. (See MNI RBNZ Preview here)
  • Net migration estimates fell to +1,410 in May from a revised +5,110 in April.
  • Swap rates are unchanged.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings. There's a 2% probability priced in for a 25bp hike at today’s meeting. A cumulative 36bps of easing is priced by year-end.
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