NZGBS: Little Changed, Budget Policy Statement Today

In local morning trade, NZGBs are 1bp cheaper after US tsys finished little changed after see-sawing around opening levels following a well-received $67bn 5-year note sale (4.235% vs. 4.242% WI).

• Durable Goods Orders (1.4% vs. 1.0% est, prior down revised to -6.9% from -6.2%).
• Philly Fed Non-Mfg Activity missed estimate (-18.3 vs. -8.8 prior) - the lowest print since April 2023. It included fairly weak details: new orders remained negative, sales/revenues fell to a near-zero reading, full-time employment growth was "less widespread", and the price indexes "continued to indicate overall increases in prices".
• The Consumer Confidence Index dipped from 104.8 to 104.7, defying expectations of a rise to 107.0 (prior was revised down from 106.7). Present Situation rose from 147.6 (rev. from 147.2) to 151.0, with Expectations slipping from 76.3 (rev. from 79.8) to 73.8.
• Swap rates are 1bp higher.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing is unchanged across meetings. A cumulative 67bps of easing is priced by year-end.
• Today, the local calendar sees the NZ Government Budget Policy Statement at 13:00 NZT.
• NZ Treasury plans four nominal bond auctions in April, each offering NZ$500mn.