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NZGBS: Richer, 5Y Outperforms, Business Confidence Highest Since 2015

BONDS

NZGBs closed off the best levels, flat to 7bps richer, with the 5-year outperforming.

  • The move away from the session’s best levels was likely assisted by ANZ’s business survey, which came in stronger again in November. Confidence rose to 30.8, the highest since early 2015. The measure rose sharply in October helped by post-election optimism and a more pro-business government but so far this tendency is not proving temporary. Yesterday the RBNZ spoke about demand slowing less than expected and this data suggests that it could be picking up again.
  • Today’s weekly bond auctions also did little to support the local market with the three cover ratios lower than previous offerings at 1.94x to 3.75x.
  • Slightly cheaper cash US tsys in the Asia-Pac session has also likely weighed on the local market.
  • Swap rates closed 2-7bps lower, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed after yesterday’s hawkish hold from the RBNZ. OIS pricing is still 1-7bps firmer than pre-RBNZ decision levels.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar sees CoreLogic House Prices and ANZ Consumer Confidence.
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