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NZGBS: Richer Despite Friday’s Directionless Dealings For US Tsys

BONDS

NZGBs are 2bps richer in local morning trade despite US tsys finishing last week with a directionless NY session. US tsys closed Friday with small gains, with yields ending near the lowest levels in months on optimism that the FOMC will be cutting rates twice this year, possibly starting as soon as September.

  • US tsys were stronger during early London hours after soft French, German and Eurozone composite flash PMIs. Also, Euro-Area Mfg fell to 43.4, 3 pts below the consensus, and the weakest level for this year.
  • However, US tsys gapped cheaper after slightly higher than expected US flash PMIs. The US composite PMI rose to 54.6, marginally above the May reading, and a two-year high suggesting growth is holding up reasonably well.
  • NZ’s Trade Balance shifted to a surplus of NZ$204mn in May from a revised -NZ$3mn in April. 12 months YTD Trade Deficit narrowed to NZ$10.054bn from a revised -NZ$10.217bn in April.
  • Swap rates are 3bps lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is slightly softer for 2025 meetings. A cumulative 29bps of easing is priced by year-end.
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