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NZGBS: Richer, Narrow Ranges, Light Calendar

BONDS

NZGBs closed flat to 4bps richer across benchmarks after a relatively subdued open to the trading week. Westpac McDermott Miller consumer confidence and BNZ’s performance of services index failed to provide a domestic driver for the market. Accordingly, it was US tsys in today’s Asia-Pac session, which likely guided the local market after Fed officials pushed back against market expectations for early and aggressive easing in 2024.

  • Narrow ranges have persisting in Asia-Pac trade on Monday for cash US tsys. The early move lower didn’t follow through, with little meaningful macro newsflow crossing. This leaves cash tsys 2bps richer to 1bp cheaper, with a light steepening apparent.
  • Swap rates are 2-5bps lower, with implied swap spreads tighter and the 2s10s curve flatter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps firmer across meetings. A 100bps of easing is still priced by Nov’24.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar sees Trade Balance and ANZ Business Confidence data.
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