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NZGBS: Richer, Tracking US Tsys

BONDS

NZGBs closed 5-6bps richer. Outside of the previously outlined NZ’s manufacturing PMI and Food Price data, there hasn't been much in the way of domestic drivers to flag.

  • With the NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials little changed on the day, today’s movements appear driven by global bond developments rather than domestic factors.
  • Indeed, the shift away from the session's best levels can be attributed to a 1-2bp cheapening of US tsys during today's Asia-Pac session.
  • Swap rates are 6-8bps lower, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 5bps softer for 2025 meetings. A cumulative 31bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Next Monday, the local calendar will see REINZ House Sales data and Performance Services Index.
  • In Australia, the RBA Policy Decision is due on Tuesday. “Money markets are now comfortable with the idea that the RBA will delay cutting interest rates from the current 4.35% until well into 2025, with RBA Gov. Michele Bullock expected to confirm once again on Tuesday that the central bank's board took time to debate a further interest-rate increase.” (per DJ)
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