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BONDS: NZGBS: Richer With US Tsys, Early Close Ahead Of Holiday

BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

In local morning trade, NZGBs are flat to 4bps richer after a strong NY session for US tsys. 

  • US tsys finished near session bests on Monday following much weaker than expected Chicago PMI data. Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI slipped 3.3 points to 36.9 in December. This is the third consecutive monthly decline, with the index at its lowest since May 2024, and below the 2024 average.
  • Higher-than-expected pending new home sales (2.2% vs. 0.8% est) and a jump in Dallas Fed mfg index data (3.4 vs. -3.0 est) tempered US tsys support midmorning. The Mar'25 10Y contract (TYH5) traded around 108-30 (+16) through the second half, with the US 10Y yield 9bps lower at 4.53% after the bell.
  • The local calendar is empty today and will remain so until the release of CoreLogic Home Values on January 2.
  • It will be an abbreviated trading session today before the New Year’s Day holiday.
  • Swap rates are 4-6bps lower, with a flatter 2s10s curve.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer across meetings, with August 2025 leading. 55bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 125bps by November 2025.
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In local morning trade, NZGBs are flat to 4bps richer after a strong NY session for US tsys. 

  • US tsys finished near session bests on Monday following much weaker than expected Chicago PMI data. Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI slipped 3.3 points to 36.9 in December. This is the third consecutive monthly decline, with the index at its lowest since May 2024, and below the 2024 average.
  • Higher-than-expected pending new home sales (2.2% vs. 0.8% est) and a jump in Dallas Fed mfg index data (3.4 vs. -3.0 est) tempered US tsys support midmorning. The Mar'25 10Y contract (TYH5) traded around 108-30 (+16) through the second half, with the US 10Y yield 9bps lower at 4.53% after the bell.
  • The local calendar is empty today and will remain so until the release of CoreLogic Home Values on January 2.
  • It will be an abbreviated trading session today before the New Year’s Day holiday.
  • Swap rates are 4-6bps lower, with a flatter 2s10s curve.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer across meetings, with August 2025 leading. 55bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 125bps by November 2025.