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BONDS: NZGBS: Richer With US Tsys, Trump Tariffs In Focus

BONDS
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NZGBs closed 2bps richer, aligning with strengthening in cash US tsys in today’s Asia-Pac session. 

  • Cash US tsys are dealing 1-4bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session, with a flattening bias, after finishing Friday mildly stronger.
  • US stock futures are dealing lower ahead of key earnings week, with the S&P 500 down 0.8% and the Nasdaq down ~0.50%.
  • “In a social media post on Sunday, Trump said he ordered an emergency 25% tariff on all Colombian goods coming into the US, which will be raised to 50% in a week. Oil, gold, coffee and flowers top the list of exports, according to Colombia’s tax authorities.” (per BBG)
  • The US Treasury will auction $69 billion of two-year notes and $70 billion of five-year debt later Monday.
  • Focus this week is the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday.
  • Swap rates closed 2bps lower after a subdued session given Auckland Anniversary and Australia Day holidays.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed. 47bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 109bps by November 2025.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Filled Jobs.
  • On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$200mn of the 1.50% May-31 bond, NZ$200mn of the 4.25% May-36 bond and NZ$100mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.
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NZGBs closed 2bps richer, aligning with strengthening in cash US tsys in today’s Asia-Pac session. 

  • Cash US tsys are dealing 1-4bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session, with a flattening bias, after finishing Friday mildly stronger.
  • US stock futures are dealing lower ahead of key earnings week, with the S&P 500 down 0.8% and the Nasdaq down ~0.50%.
  • “In a social media post on Sunday, Trump said he ordered an emergency 25% tariff on all Colombian goods coming into the US, which will be raised to 50% in a week. Oil, gold, coffee and flowers top the list of exports, according to Colombia’s tax authorities.” (per BBG)
  • The US Treasury will auction $69 billion of two-year notes and $70 billion of five-year debt later Monday.
  • Focus this week is the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday.
  • Swap rates closed 2bps lower after a subdued session given Auckland Anniversary and Australia Day holidays.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed. 47bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 109bps by November 2025.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Filled Jobs.
  • On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$200mn of the 1.50% May-31 bond, NZ$200mn of the 4.25% May-36 bond and NZ$100mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.