MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bullish S&P Phase Concludes
Price Signal Summary – Bullish S&P Phase Concludes
- Monday’s initial sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract and breach of support at 5948.00, the Jan 27 low, strengthens a bearish threat and cancels - for now - a recent bullish theme. An extension down would open 5892.37, a Fibonacci retracement point. Eurostoxx 50 futures have recovered from Monday’s low. However, the sharp reversal lower earlier this week signals the end of the recent bull run - for now - and the start of a corrective cycle.
- Resistance in GBPUSD remains intact and the recent pullback highlights a potential bearish threat. The move down signals the end of the Jan 13 - 27 correction and note that 1.2503, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. USDJPY is trading lower today and this has resulted in a break of short-term support at 153.72, the Jan 27 low. The move marks an extension of the bear cycle that started Jan 10 and clears the way for 152.55 next, a Fibonacci retracement.AUDUSD continues to recover from Monday’s low. Despite these gains, the trend structure remains bearish. Monday’s cycle low confirmed a continuation of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
- A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. Last week’s extension higher and this week’s appreciation, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Last week’s move down in WTI futures marked an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.30 (pierced).
- Bund futures traded higher Monday and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Price has cleared resistance at 132.22, the Jan 22 high, and is through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher confirms a resumption of the corrective bull cycle that started Jan 14. A bullish corrective phase in Gilt futures remains in play, signalling scope for a continuation higher near-term. Last week’s high print and Monday’s climb, reinforce current conditions.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 1.0594 Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 3: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 1.0443 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0386/88 20-day EMA / High Feb 4
- PRICE: 1.0377 @ 06:04 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 1.0272 Low Feb 4
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0031 2.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.9947 76.4% of the Sep 28 ‘22 - Jul 18’23 bull leg
Gains EURUSD are considered corrective. A strong reversal from Monday’s low does highlight a potential hammer candle formation on that day. However, additional reinforcing price evidence is required to signal a turn in the trend. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. Attention is on 1.0138, a Fibonacci projection. 1.0386 to 1.0443, the area between the 20-and 50-days EMAs, marks an important resistance zone.
GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19
- RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 swing
- RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2503/23 50-day EMA / High Jan 27 and key resistance
- PRICE: 1.2479 @ 06:18 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 1.2249 Low Jan 3
- SUP 2: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
- SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
Resistance in GBPUSD remains intact and the recent pullback highlights a potential bearish threat. The move down signals the end of the Jan 13 - 27 correction and note that 1.2503, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. Furthermore, MA studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 1.2100, the Jan 13 low and bear trigger. A clear break of the 50-day average would alter the picture.
EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8421 High Jan 27
- RES 2: 0.8363/69 High Jan 3 / 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8336 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 high-low range
- PRICE: 0.8322 @ 06:47 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 0.8248 Low Feb 3
- SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
- SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg
EURGBP traded in a volatile manner on Monday and for now remains above this week’s low. The bear cycle that started Jan 20 is in play and Monday’s initial sell-off strengthens a bearish threat. A resumption of weakness would open the first key support at 0.8223, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, the 20-day EMA is seen as a key short-term resistance - at 0.8369. A breach of the average would be a bullish development.
USDJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 158.08 High Jan 15
- RES 2: 156.75 High Jan 23 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 155.59 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 153.23 @ 06:56 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 153.10 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 152.55 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg
- SUP 3: 151.81 Low Dec 12
- SUP 4: 151.06 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg
USDJPY is trading lower today and this has resulted in a break of short-term support at 153.72, the Jan 27 low. The move marks an extension of the bear cycle that started Jan 10 and clears the way for 152.55 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 155.59, the 20-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 156.75, the Jan 23 high, where a break would highlight a bullish reversal.
EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 164.08 High Jan 24
- RES 2: 161.90 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 160.70 High Feb 4
- PRICE: 159.21 @ 07:11 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 157.97 Low Feb 3
- SUP 2: 156.99 Low Dec 4
- SUP 3: 156.18 Low Dec 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
A bear threat in EURJPY remains present. The cross traded to a fresh short-term cycle low Monday, confirming a resumption of the bear leg that started Dec 30 last year. An important retracement point at 158.24, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for an extension towards 156.18, the Dec 3 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch, and a pivot level, is 161.90, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence Intact
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6331 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6305 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6271 @ 07:57 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.5931 1.764 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD continues to recover from Monday’s low. Despite these gains, the trend structure remains bearish. Monday’s cycle low confirmed a continuation of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of the bear leg would open 0.6045, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 0.6305, the 50-day EMA, and 0.6331, the Jan 24. A clear breach of both levels would alter the picture.
USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Key Support
- RES 4: 1.5000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 2: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 1: 1.4600/1.4793 Round number resistance / High Feb 3
- PRICE: 1.4306 @ 08:04 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 1.4291 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.4261 Low Jan 20 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.4178 High Nov 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.4120 Low Dec 11
The reversal in USDCAD from Monday’s high extended into the Tuesday close. For now, a move down is considered corrective and the primary uptrend remains intact. Monday’s cycle high, reinforces and strengthens bullish conditions. The break higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.4814 next, the Apr 2003 high. Key support to watch lies at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. A clear breach of this level would signal a reversal.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (H5) Bull Phase Remains In Play
- RES 4: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 134.29 High Dec 20
- RES 2: 133.73 50.0% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 133.58 High Feb 3
- PRICE: 133.33 @ 05:33 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 132.23 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 16 / 24
- SUP 3: 131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)
Bund futures traded higher Monday and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Price has cleared resistance at 132.22, the Jan 22 high, and is through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher confirms a resumption of the corrective bull cycle that started Jan 14. This signals scope for an extension towards 133.73, a Fibonacci retracement point. Firm short-term support has been defined at 131.00, the Jan 16 / 24 low.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Bullish Short-Term Conditions
- RES 4: 118.310 High Dec 20
- RES 3: 118.27 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 118.100 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 117.980 High Jan 3
- PRICE: 117.810 @ 05:46 GMT Feb 4
- SUP 1: 117.380 Low Jan 3
- SUP 2: 117.220 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24
- SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and a key support
A short-term bullish corrective phase in Bobl futures remains in play and Monday’s strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. The contract has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of 117.800, 50.0% of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg, would signal scope for an extension towards 118.258, the 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg. Initial support to watch lies at 117.165, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 107.233 76.4% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.170 High Dec 20
- RES 2: 107.081 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 1: 107.045 High Jan 3
- PRICE: 106.930 @ 05:38 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 106.805 Low Jan 3
- SUP 2: 106.703 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 106.515 Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: 106.435 Low Jan 15 and key support
Schatz futures traded sharply higher Monday, marking an extension of the bull cycle that began Jan 15. The contract has traded through a number of important resistance points and the latest impulsive gains highlight a stronger reversal. The focus is on 107.081, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 106.724, the 20-day EMA. First support is 106.805, Monday’s intraday low.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Bullish Corrective Phase Intact
- RES 4: 94.50 High Dec 16
- RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 93.64 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 93.54 High Feb 3
- PRICE: 93.19@ Close Feb 3
- SUP 1: 92.17/91.52 20-day EMA / Low Jan 24
- SUP 2: 91.10 Low Jan 20
- SUP 3: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
A bullish corrective phase in Gilt futures remains in play, signalling scope for a continuation higher near-term. Last week’s high print and Monday’s climb, reinforce current conditions. The contract has traded through 93.09, the Dec 20 high. Sights are on 93.64, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger has been defined at 88.96, the Jan 13 low. Initial firm support lies at 91.52, the Jan 24 low. First support is 92.17, the 20-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Bullish Theme
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 120.70 High Dec 20 ‘24
- PRICE: 120.26 @ Close Feb 3
- SUP 1: 119.38 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
A corrective phase in BTP futures remains intact.The latest move higher has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50- day EMAs. This signals scope for an extension of the bull cycle and sights are on 120.98, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would highlight a reversal and the end of the correction.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Short-Term Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 5381.13 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: 5335.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: 5327.00 High Jan 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 5283.00 High Feb 4
- PRICE: 5259.00 @ 06:24 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 5112.00 Low Jan 3
- SUP 2: 5065.54 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 4991.00 Low Jan 15
- SUP 4: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 and a key short-term support
Eurostoxx 50 futures have recovered from Monday’s low. However, the sharp reversal lower earlier this week signals the end of the recent bull run - for now - and the start of a corrective cycle. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 5170.66. A resumption of the bear leg would pave the way for a move towards the 50-day EMA, at 5065.54. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 5327.00, the Jan 31 high.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6162.25 High Jan 24
- RES 2: 6147.75 High Jan 31
- RES 1: 6069.00 High Feb 3
- PRICE: 6031.75 @ 05:02 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 5935.50 Low Feb 3
- SUP 2: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5842.50 Low Jan 14
- SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key resistance
Monday’s initial sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract and breach of support at 5948.00, the Jan 27 low, strengthens a bearish threat and cancels - for now - a recent bullish theme. An extension down would open 5892.37, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial resistance is at 6069.00, Tuesday’s intraday high. Gains are considered corrective, however, a stronger rally would expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (J5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: $85.20 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 9 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing
- RES 3: $83.97 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 2: $83.28 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $78.80/81.20 - High Jan 23 / 15 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $75.88 @ 07:13 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: $75.52/74.15 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 4
- SUP 2: $71.25 - Low Dec 20
- SUP 3: $70.26 - Low Dec 6
- SUP 4: $69.65 - Low Oct 29
Brent futures are in consolidation mode and continue to trade closer to their recent lows. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at $75.52 (pierced). The latest pullback is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. A clear breach of the 50-day average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A reversal higher would instead refocus attention on the bull trigger at $81.20, the Jan 15 high.
WTI TECHS: (H5) Testing Support
- RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: $81.26 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 2: $80.63 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 1: $75.18/79.48 - High Feb 3 / High Apr 12 ‘24
- PRICE: $72.44 @ 07:22 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: $72.32/70.67 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 4
- SUP 2: $68.05 - Low Dec 20
- SUP 3: $66.55 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $65.80 - Low Oct 29 ‘24
Last week’s move down in WTI futures marked an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.30 (pierced). A clear break of the 50-day average would suggest scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a reversal higher would refocus attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high and a key resistance.
GOLD TECHS: Impulsive Bull Wave
- RES 4: $2917.5 - 1.764 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 3: $2900.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $2867.5 - 1.50 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $2861.9 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $2857.8@ 07:28 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: $2807.3 - Low Feb 4
- SUP 2: $2746.5 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2730.6 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 4: $2698.4 - 50-day EMA
A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. Last week’s extension higher and this week’s appreciation, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $2867.5 next, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2698.4, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at $2746.5.
SILVER TECHS: Pierces Resistance
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.552 - 61.8% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- PRICE: $32.361 @ 08:15 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: $30.651 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $29.704 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Silver is trading higher this week. Key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high, has been pierced. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. This would cancel a recent bearish theme and open $32.552, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would expose the $33.00 handle. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $30.651, the 50-day EMA and a pivot level. A clear break of the EMA would reinstate the recent bearish theme.