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BONDS: NZGBS: Sharply Cheaper As Market Plays Catch-Up After Holiday

BONDS
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NZGBs closed weaker, with benchmark yields rising 2-8bps in a session lacking local data.

  • Today's movements largely reflect a catch-up after yesterday’s holiday, with NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials tightening by 1-2bps from Wednesday’s close.
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session ahead of today’s headline employment data for January, which is expected to slow to 170-180k from December’s strong 256k.
  • NZ’s Foreign Minister Winston Peters suggests that the country needs to create an attractive economy and rules to draw in wealthy overseas investors, which could include allowing them to purchase homes.
  • Swap rates closed flat to 9bps higher, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 1-5bps firmer. 49bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 120bps by November 2025.
  • On Monday, the local calendar is empty. The next event is a State of the Economy presentation by Treasury Chief Economic Adviser Dominick Stephens next Wednesday. The next data release is Card Spending on Thursday. 
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NZGBs closed weaker, with benchmark yields rising 2-8bps in a session lacking local data.

  • Today's movements largely reflect a catch-up after yesterday’s holiday, with NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials tightening by 1-2bps from Wednesday’s close.
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session ahead of today’s headline employment data for January, which is expected to slow to 170-180k from December’s strong 256k.
  • NZ’s Foreign Minister Winston Peters suggests that the country needs to create an attractive economy and rules to draw in wealthy overseas investors, which could include allowing them to purchase homes.
  • Swap rates closed flat to 9bps higher, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 1-5bps firmer. 49bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 120bps by November 2025.
  • On Monday, the local calendar is empty. The next event is a State of the Economy presentation by Treasury Chief Economic Adviser Dominick Stephens next Wednesday. The next data release is Card Spending on Thursday.