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NZGBS: Slightly Cheaper After US Tsys Pare Friday’s Gains

BONDS

In local morning trade, NZGBs are flat to 1bps cheaper after US tsys bear-flattened, with yields 2-9bps higher. The move in US tsys unwound a portion of Friday's rally as markets tempered 2024 rate cut projections ahead of Friday's payrolls data. On the data front, US factory orders receded more than expected, with durables in line.

  • 10Y tsy futures finished near lows on moderate volumes at 110-11+, well above technical support of 109-02+ (20-day EMA). The trend direction is still bullish with today's pullback considered corrective, according to MNI’s technicals team.
  • The swaps curve has bull-flattened, with rates flat to 3bps lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed.
  • RBNZ says it has made some key decisions as part of its liquidity policy review. “We decided we will not adopt the international liquidity metrics as our existing metrics work well and there would be a high cost to change them.” (See Bloomberg link)
  • Policymakers will be looking for continued subdued economic growth to be confident it has achieved its inflation targets, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr comments on the Of Interest podcast produced by interest.co.nz. (See Bloomberg link)
  • 3Q Construction Work Done fell 2.4% q/q versus -0.5% est. ANZ Commodity Prices and the Government’s 4-month Financial Statements are due later.
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