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NZGBS: Slightly Richer As RBNZ Gov. Orr Shuts Door On Hike

BONDS

NZGBs closed flat to 1bp richer and near the session’s best levels after RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said policymakers had decided against raising interest rates this week because the latest data confirmed that inflation is slowing. (See link)

  • (AFR) The RBNZ surprised pundits by appearing less inclined to raise interest rates further, sending the local currency and bond yields lower as traders sharply trimmed the chance of further tightening. (See link)
  • Business Confidence lost -1.9 points from a month earlier in February to 34.7, according to ANZ. However, the Activity Outlook rose to 29.5 from 25.6 in January.
  • Today’s weekly supply showed mixed results in terms of demand metrics. The May-28 and May-41 lines saw cover ratios of 2.6-2.7x, while the Apr-33 line showed 1.85x.
  • Swap rates closed 3bps lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 1-5bps softer across meetings today. This comes after late 2024 meetings shunted around 20bps softer yesterday following the RBNZ policy decision. A cumulative 74bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar sees CoreLogic House Prices, ANZ Consumer Confidence and Building Permits data, along with a speech from RBNZ Governor Orr to the Canterbury Chamber of Commerce.
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