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BONDS: NZGBS: Slightly Richer, US Tsys Little Changed, Cons Conf Falls

BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

In local morning trade, NZGBs are 2bps richer after US tsys finished little changed in the middle of the range. Support came from the ECB, which cut rates by 25bp to 2.75%.

  • Initial claims in the Jan 25 week fell 16k to a 3-week low of 207k, defying forecasts of a 2k rise to 225k.
  • Q4 GDP growth missed expectations at 2.3% Q/Q annualized (vs 2.6% survey, 3.1% prior, though exactly in line with yesterday's Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast), the weakest in 3 quarters, with the headline PCE price deflator was on the soft side (2.2% vs 2.5% expected).
  • Pending sales dropped 5.5% vs 1.6% prior (downward rev from 2.2%) and expectations of flat growth, marking the first drop after 4 consecutive increases.
  • According to CoreLogic, NZ’s home value index fell 0.1% m/m in January versus -0.2% in December. The slowdown in price drops may signal a modest recovery in the housing market as interest rates fall.
  • NZ consumer confidence fell 4.2% m/m in January.
  • Swap rates are 3bps lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is slightly softer across meetings. 48bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 121bps by November 2025.
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In local morning trade, NZGBs are 2bps richer after US tsys finished little changed in the middle of the range. Support came from the ECB, which cut rates by 25bp to 2.75%.

  • Initial claims in the Jan 25 week fell 16k to a 3-week low of 207k, defying forecasts of a 2k rise to 225k.
  • Q4 GDP growth missed expectations at 2.3% Q/Q annualized (vs 2.6% survey, 3.1% prior, though exactly in line with yesterday's Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast), the weakest in 3 quarters, with the headline PCE price deflator was on the soft side (2.2% vs 2.5% expected).
  • Pending sales dropped 5.5% vs 1.6% prior (downward rev from 2.2%) and expectations of flat growth, marking the first drop after 4 consecutive increases.
  • According to CoreLogic, NZ’s home value index fell 0.1% m/m in January versus -0.2% in December. The slowdown in price drops may signal a modest recovery in the housing market as interest rates fall.
  • NZ consumer confidence fell 4.2% m/m in January.
  • Swap rates are 3bps lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is slightly softer across meetings. 48bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 121bps by November 2025.