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NZGBS: Stronger After U.S. Tsy Yields Collapse

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NZGBs open 13-23bp stronger after a dramatic bull steepening of the U.S. Tsy curve in the wake of rolling developments in the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). 2-year U.S. Tsys surge with yields 60bp lower at 3.97% as the market scaled back tightening expectations. Goldman Sachs and Barclays both revised their calls to steady for the March FOMC from +50bp previously.

  • Swaps curve bull steepens with rates 12-23bp with swap spreads unchanged.
  • In sympathy with movements in US STIR RBNZ dated OIS soften sharply with pricing 20-29bp lower across meetings led by November. April pricing declined to 16bp from 36bp yesterday with terminal OCR expectations 34bp below the RBNZ’s projected peak of 5.50% at 5.16%.
  • On the local docket, REINZ Housing Sales data for February has been released showing a decline of -31.1% Y/Y. Net Migration data is also slated today. The recent rebound in long-term migration and tourism provides one of the few bright spots on the economic horizon.
  • Abroad, Australia is slated to release consumer and business sentiment surveys ahead of US CPI tonight. The market’s focus however remains on the U.S. Tsys and the SVB saga.
  • Elsewhere, NZ PM Hipkins stated his confidence in NZ banks' sound liquidity yesterday.
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NZGBs open 13-23bp stronger after a dramatic bull steepening of the U.S. Tsy curve in the wake of rolling developments in the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). 2-year U.S. Tsys surge with yields 60bp lower at 3.97% as the market scaled back tightening expectations. Goldman Sachs and Barclays both revised their calls to steady for the March FOMC from +50bp previously.

  • Swaps curve bull steepens with rates 12-23bp with swap spreads unchanged.
  • In sympathy with movements in US STIR RBNZ dated OIS soften sharply with pricing 20-29bp lower across meetings led by November. April pricing declined to 16bp from 36bp yesterday with terminal OCR expectations 34bp below the RBNZ’s projected peak of 5.50% at 5.16%.
  • On the local docket, REINZ Housing Sales data for February has been released showing a decline of -31.1% Y/Y. Net Migration data is also slated today. The recent rebound in long-term migration and tourism provides one of the few bright spots on the economic horizon.
  • Abroad, Australia is slated to release consumer and business sentiment surveys ahead of US CPI tonight. The market’s focus however remains on the U.S. Tsys and the SVB saga.
  • Elsewhere, NZ PM Hipkins stated his confidence in NZ banks' sound liquidity yesterday.