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NZGBS: Stronger, Tracking U.S. Tsys’ Reaction To Weekend’s News

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NZGBs opened stronger, weakened with U.S. Tsys’ initial reaction to the weekend’s banking news, before closing at or near session bests as U.S. Tsys reversed course in Asia-Pac trade. NZGBs richen 17-19bp on the day with the 2/10 curve 2bp steeper and the NZ/US 10-year yield differential -5bp.

  • Swaps bull steepen 2bp with rates 17-19bp lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS closed 8-13bp softer for meetings beyond April with terminal OCR expectations at 5.21% (+46bp of additional tightening across meetings out to July). April meeting pricing settled at 22bp of tightening.
  • The local calendar is scheduled to release February's Trade Balance data tomorrow. After last week’s worse-than-expected Q4 current account deficit print and resultant bond rating guidance from S&P, the release will be closely watched.
  • RBNZ Chief Economist Conway is scheduled to give a speech: “The path back to low inflation in NZ” at a capital markets forum on Thursday.
  • Elsewhere, the RBA Minutes, slated for release tomorrow, will provide further details on the dovish shift at the March meeting.
  • The global calendar’s highlight this week however is the FOMC meeting (Tue/Wed). BBG consensus expects a 25bp hike, although some analysts expect no move.
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NZGBs opened stronger, weakened with U.S. Tsys’ initial reaction to the weekend’s banking news, before closing at or near session bests as U.S. Tsys reversed course in Asia-Pac trade. NZGBs richen 17-19bp on the day with the 2/10 curve 2bp steeper and the NZ/US 10-year yield differential -5bp.

  • Swaps bull steepen 2bp with rates 17-19bp lower.
  • RBNZ dated OIS closed 8-13bp softer for meetings beyond April with terminal OCR expectations at 5.21% (+46bp of additional tightening across meetings out to July). April meeting pricing settled at 22bp of tightening.
  • The local calendar is scheduled to release February's Trade Balance data tomorrow. After last week’s worse-than-expected Q4 current account deficit print and resultant bond rating guidance from S&P, the release will be closely watched.
  • RBNZ Chief Economist Conway is scheduled to give a speech: “The path back to low inflation in NZ” at a capital markets forum on Thursday.
  • Elsewhere, the RBA Minutes, slated for release tomorrow, will provide further details on the dovish shift at the March meeting.
  • The global calendar’s highlight this week however is the FOMC meeting (Tue/Wed). BBG consensus expects a 25bp hike, although some analysts expect no move.