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NZGBS: Subdued Session, Closed Richer, Global PMI Data Due

BONDS

NZGBs closed on a positive note with key benchmarks 3-4bp richer after trading in a narrow range in the local session.

  • June’s trade surplus narrowed to NZ$9mn from a revised NZ$52mn in May. Exports to China declined 20.4% m/m (-7.2% y/y) while exports to Australia rose +8.3% m/m (+30.3% y/y).
  • Swap rates are 5-6bp lower with the 2s10s curve flatter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS flat to 3bp softer across meetings. Terminal OCR expectations sit at 5.69%, just off the highest level since early July.
  • RBNZ published monthly credit card spending data for June. Total spending in NZ in June rose 1.9% m/m and gained 5% y/y, after seasonal adjustment. Spending on overseas-issued cards used in NZ was NZ$423m, falling for the third consecutive month. Overseas billings on NZ-issued cards was NZ$632m, the highest value recorded in a month since August 2019.
  • Tomorrow the local calendar is scheduled to release no data. The next key release is ANZ Consumer Confidence (Jul) on Friday.
  • Globally, the calendar today sees the release of S&P Global PMIs (Jul) along with the Chicago Fed Activity Index (Jun).
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