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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessNZGBS: Weaker, At Cheaps, RBNZ Policy Decision Tomorrow
NZGBs ended the session on a low note with the 2-year and 10-year benchmark yields respectively rising by 8bp and 6bp, ahead of tomorrow’s RBNZ policy meeting.
- The RBNZ will review revised projections that are expected to indicate stronger economic growth, sustained inflation, and a lower peak in the unemployment rate. It is likely that the projection for a recession in 2023 will be removed due to increased demand resulting from reconstruction spending and a surge in migration.
- A Bloomberg survey of economists revealed a median expectation of a 25bp hike to 5.50% from the RBNZ tomorrow. 18/21 economists expected a 25bp increase with ASB, TD Securities and UBS expecting a 50bp increase.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 4-14bp firmer across meetings. 37bp of tightening is priced for tomorrow’s RBNZ meeting. Terminal rate expectations are at a new cycle high of 5.94%.
- Pricing has shunted firmer over recent days, following a more stimulatory than expected NZ budget. With a fiscal impulse moving into positive territory next year, pricing has firmed 9-38bp across meetings post-budget with early ’24 leading.
- Swap rates are 9-11bp higher with implied swap spreads 2-3bp wider.
- The local calendar sees the release of Retail Sales Ex-Inflation ahead of the RBNZ policy decision tomorrow.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.