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OAT: Little Reaction As Barnier Announced As French PM

OAT
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OAT futures gain a few ticks (~6) as Michel Barnier is announced as the new French PM/. This marks the first step to breaking the political impasse that has been in place since the legislative election results in early July. However, the 10-year OAT/Bund spread remains above the 70bps handle that has acted as a floor for much of August.

  • There will be immediate focus on whether Barnier’s gov't will be able to carry a majority in the National Assembly. The combined forces of Macron's centrist Ensemble, the conservative Les Republicains (LR) from where Barnier hails, and other centrist/centre-right groups comes to fewer than the 289 seats required for a majority (see chart below).
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OAT futures gain a few ticks (~6) as Michel Barnier is announced as the new French PM/. This marks the first step to breaking the political impasse that has been in place since the legislative election results in early July. However, the 10-year OAT/Bund spread remains above the 70bps handle that has acted as a floor for much of August.

  • There will be immediate focus on whether Barnier’s gov't will be able to carry a majority in the National Assembly. The combined forces of Macron's centrist Ensemble, the conservative Les Republicains (LR) from where Barnier hails, and other centrist/centre-right groups comes to fewer than the 289 seats required for a majority (see chart below).