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OAT: Tomorrow’s Supply An Important Litmus Test As Political Paralysis Persists

OAT

Tomorrow’s LT OAT supply has a target range of E10.0-12.0bln, which is the largest upper-bound since the French legislative election was announced on June 9. 

  • As such tomorrow’s auction will be another important litmus test for mid/long-maturity OAT demand, against the backdrop of continued political paralysis and fiscal concerns.
  • However, France has sold the top of its target range in all MT/LT OAT auctions since the election announcement, with reasonable results seen across lines.
  • A reminder that the 10-year OAT/Bund spread continues to trade above 70bps, up from a 45-50bp range in May.
  • Our Political Risk team noted this morning that there is still no sign of compromise amongst the main political parties to help agree on a new PM.
  • Four lines will be on offer at tomorrow’s auction, spanning 10 to 30-year maturities, including the on-the-run 10-year 3.00% Nov-34 OAT (which was launched in June).
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