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Oct Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Beats Expectations


The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) came in at +0.83 in October, vs 0.27 expected and +0.32 in Sep, suggesting that activity accelerated in the month, as opposed to the anticipated deceleration.

  • Per the Chicago Fed, 3 of the 4 broad sub-indices (production, sales/orders/inventories, employment) made positive contributions in October (personal consumption/housing fell), and three of the four categories increased from September.
  • From the release: " Sixty-one of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in October, while 24 made negative contributions. Fifty-four indicators improved from September to October, 30 indicators deteriorated, and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, eight made negative contributions."
  • That said, the monthly readings can be volatile - the 3-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, fell to +0.75 in Oct from +1.37 in Sep.
  • Fairly limited market impact from the release.

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