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Oct Housing Wrap: Market Fades Even After Sept BOC Pause

CANADA
  • Market softening as sales decrease and listings rise, a contrast with earlier this year when market surged after BOC signaled pause.
  • Existing home sales -1.9% Sept, third consecutive decline, -15% YOY.
  • Sales-to-new listings ratio eased to +51.4% vs +55.7% in August while Home Price Index -0.3%, +1.1% YOY.
  • “Expect a quieter than normal winter with all eyes on the Bank of Canada. We’ll see how buyers are feeling when the snow starts to melt” CREA senior economist said in latest release.
  • Capital Economics forecast 5% decline in prices over the next 6M, reversing gain from first half of the year.
  • Financial stability risks persist with mortgage rates up record 30% over last year. Borrowers refinancing at higher rates cut into disposable income; others hitting trigger rates where they are no longer paying down any principal.
  • “Higher interest rates are also continuing to cool housing demand by weighing on consumers’ likelihood of buying a home” said the BoC in the Q3 consumer survey.
  • Housing starts +8% to 270K units led by multi-unit properties.
  • Federal housing agency says 3.5m units needed in next decade to restore affordability; this is far higher than even record homebuilding pace. Govt may unveil pricey measures to soothe voters.
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