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October CPI Comes In Below Expectations

COLOMBIA
  • Released late on Friday, October CPI readings fell below estimates:
    • Colombia Oct. Consumer Prices Rise 0.01% M/m, Est. +0.22%
    • Colombia Oct. Consumer Prices Rise 4.58% Y/y, Est. +4.81%
    • Colombia Oct. Core CPI -0.17% M/m, Prior +0.30%
    • Colombia Oct. Core CPI 2.86% Y/y, Prior 3.03%
  • The data comes shortly after the central bank recently accelerated its hiking pace to 50bps. Despite inflation accelerating less than expected, Goldman Sachs note: "the underlying inflation dynamics are turning less favorable, and prices are likely to rebound in the coming months once the VAT holidays end. A clear sign of inflation dissemination is the fact that eight of the twelve CPI groups registered annual readings above the 3% target midpoint."
  • GS continue to expect the MPC to continue policy normalization in the coming meetings. Reducing the degree of monetary accommodation is warranted given above target inflation, drifting inflation expectations, and a large and widening current account deficit whose funding could be become more challenging were global financial conditions to tighten.
    • In addition, recent hawkish regional and global monetary developments, high risk-premia given the challenging fiscal picture, and an uncertain political and policy backdrop also justify the central bank's strategy of gradual removal of monetary accommodation.
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