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October Highs Cap USDMXN Ascent Ahead Of Fed

MXN
  • The rapid rise in USDMXN over the previous five trading sessions was halted today as the pair rejected the October highs just above 20.90 once again.
  • Fresh highs at 20.9117 represented a breach of the Oct 12 high, however, the breach failed to spark any further momentum buying, with the rally largely running out of steam.
  • The consolidation lower (-0.55%) had multiple aspects in its favour on Tuesday, including pre-FOMC dynamics, a local holiday and continued buoyancy for global equity indices supporting risk sentiment.
  • A clear break of 20.90/91 would signal scope for gains above 21.00. Further out, 21.1550 beckons, 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Jun sell-off. On the downside, initial support is seen at 20.4070, the 20-day EMA.
  • Last week's weaker-than-expected activity data, followed by a negative Q3 GDP print have bolstered MXN headwinds overall. The data does raise questions for a continued data-dependent central bank board – although the most recent inflation expectations will likely keep another quarter point hike as the most likely outcome from Banxico next week.
  • Developments to closely monitor as we approach the end of the year remain President AMLO's energy reform as well as the upcoming Banxico governorship transition

MNI/Bloomberg

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