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Odds For a 50bps Hike on at the Next CNB Meeting Are Rising

CZECHIA
  • Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis', ANO party, would win the most votes if elections were held this month, according to the latest poll (STEM survey for CNN Prima gives Babis's ANO 32.4%, Spolu 20%). The Czech Republic will hold general elections on Oct. 8-9, with no single party or coalition likely to win an outright majority (BBG).
  • Odds for a 50bps hike at the next CNB meeting (September 30) have been rising following the positive surprise in inflation last week (CPI inflation rose to 4.1% in August vs. 3.6% expected).
  • CNB Governor said in a recent interview that he 'cannot rule out' a bigger than 25bps hike in the coming meeting if the central bank's new inflation forecast indicates that such move is needed.
  • Following the completion of the capital buffers and risk profiles of individual banks, the CNB said that it will no longer restrict bank dividend payments.
  • This morning, economic data showed that the current account deficit came in larger than expected in July at -19.4bn CZK (vs. -14.7bn exp.), down from revised -10.07bn the previous month.

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