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Odds For Another 30bps Hike This Month Are Rising Following June CPI Print

HUNGARY
  • This morning, economic data showed that inflation continues to surprise positively in Hungary and rose by 5.3% YoY in June (vs. 4.9% exp.) and up from 5.1% the previous month.
  • This new print confirms that NBH will continue its tightening cycle and gradually rise its benchmark rate to curb inflationary pressures.
  • Odds for another 30bps hike at the next meeting (July 27) are rising; FRA 6Mx9M is currently trading 93bps above the Bubor 3M, implying that investors are still pricing in three 'aggressive' 30bps hikes by the end of the year (or six 15bps hikes, one at every meeting).
  • The European Union's executive arm is likely to withhold approval of Hungary's economic stimulus plan past a July 12 deadline due to concerns that the proposal doesn't go far enough in preventing corruption, according to people familiar with the issue (BBG).
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