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OECD Sees Weaker Growth Ahead Amid Risks of Worsening Energy Crisis(1/2)

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The OECD’s latest Global Economic Outlook report has downgraded longer-term global growth projections, forecasting 3.1% growth in 2022 (vs 3.0% in June's projections), slowing to 2.2% in 2023 (vs 2.8% in June) and only moderately improving to 2.7% in 2024.

  • Persistently high inflation, weaker real income growth, pessimistic sentiment and tightening financial conditions will all depress growth. Labour markets remain tight, yet employment growth is slowing.
  • US and European growth are anticipated to decelerate sharply, with the eurozone and US on the verge of recession,whilst stronger expansions in Asian emerging markets will account for close to 3/4 of global GDP growth.
  • That said, the Chinese growth outlook remains clouded, due to property-market weakness, rising non-performing loans and disruptions of Covid restrictions.
  • Lower-income economies are more susceptible to higher inflation hurting growth. Signs of debt distress heightened by the strong dollar and global tightening of financial conditions have increased risks faced by emerging markets.
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