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Off Highs As Double Note Issuance Looms Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade just 0-0.5bp richer from Friday’s close, pulling back off highs but keeping to relatively narrow ranges.
  • Today’s data is light and sole Fedspeak comes after the close, but front-loaded issuance including today’s double 2Y and 5Y supply is likely weighing on activity.
  • TYH4 at 109-30 (+ 01+) is off highs of 110-04, with roll activity dominating volumes. Resistance is seen at 110-16 (20-day EMA) but a bear threat remains with support at 109-10 (Feb 22 low).
  • Data: New home sales Jan (1000ET), Dallas Fed mfg Feb (1030ET)
  • Fedspeak: KC Fed Schmid (’25 voter) on economic/policy outlook (1940ET, incl text)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $63B 2Y note (1130ET), US Tsy $64B 5Y Note (1300ET) – front-loaded due to need for settlement by month-end
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $70B 26W bill auctions (1130ET), US Tsy $79B 13W bills auctions (1300ET)
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