Off Lows To Trade Little Changed

Core/semi-core EGBs have recovered from intraday lows to trade close to unchanged on the day.

• Bunds are flat at 133.62, operating within well-defined technical levels. The first support is 132.89 (50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase) while the first resistance is 134.72 (20-day EMA).
• Fundamental drivers have been limited this morning, with ECB-speak earlier/overnight largely re-iterating previous rhetoric (Holzmann and Kazaks leaning hawkish, Villeroy maintaining that rate cuts are likely "this year"). German final HICP and Italian IP data were not market movers.
• The German and French cash curves have twist flattened, pivoting around the 10-year tenor, while 10-year periphery spreads are generally little changed. The 10-year BTP/Bund spread is -0.5bps tighter at 157.2bps at typing.
• ECB's Nagel speaks at 1030GMT/1130CET, though his speech is at an award event for BdF Governor Villeroy, so may not be pertinent to monetary policy. ECB's Cipollone is also scheduled for 1415GMT - again unlikely to be monetary policy-relevant.
• The annual CPI revisions in the US from 1330GMT/1430CET will likely garner most cross-market attention today.