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Off Session Cheaps With Jobless Claims and GDP Revisions Coming Up

US TSYS
  • Cash Treasuries have rallied in recent trading but remain off yesterday’s best levels, trading 1-2bp cheaper across the curve.
  • TYH4 is back up to 112-28+ as it moves closer to yesterday’s high of 112-31+, which cleared one Fibo projection and sees next resistance at 113-12+ (another Fibo projection of Oct-Nov price swing). Volumes remain subdued at 285k.
  • Ahead sees data focus on weekly jobless claims and likely less so third revisions for Q3 GDP barring large surprises.
  • Initial jobless claims are seen reversing most of last week’s surprise fall to 202k, with the latest survey tallying with a payrolls reference week (consensus of 215k would mark only a modest increase from the 211k in the November reference week).
  • Continuing claims are seen only marginally higher after last week’s expected increase. The Thanksgiving holiday appears to have added noise to seasonal factors in recent weeks but this should be fading.
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