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Off Session Highs With FOMC Minutes, Existing Home Sales & 10Y TIPS Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade mostly flat but drift to 2bp richer for 30s, having pared earlier gains that had come with a continuation of yesterday’s flattening seen after the strong 20Y auction, if anything, magnified by a relatively well-received round of 20-Year JGB supply in Asia.
  • Reported positives surrounding the Israeli-Hamas hostage situation didn’t initially filter into wider markets although have perhaps helped the intraday sell-off.
  • TYZ3 at 108-27+ has pulled back near to the day’s lows after earlier breaching yesterday’s high with 109-01+, stopping short of initial resistance at 109-08+ (Nov 17 high). Cumulative volumes are solid at 340k with rolls getting underway.
  • Fed Funds implied rates continue to price very little tightening ahead (+1bp over next two meetings) before the first cut in July (cumulative 31bp) and a cumulative 91bp to end-2024.
  • Fed: FOMC meeting minutes (1400ET) - MNI preview here.
  • Data: Chicago Fed activity Oct (0830ET), Philly Fed non-mfg Nov (0830ET), Existing home sales Oct (1000ET). Existing home sales are expected to show further weakness having already slumped to ~25% below pre-pandemic levels.
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $15B 10Y TIPS re-open (91282CHP9) (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $26B 2Y FRN re-open, $75B 41D bill CMB (1130ET)
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