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Free AccessOff the lows but still pricing a lot
STIR futures hit their lows of the day around 11:00GMT / 7:00ET today, with SONIA futures and Euribor futures having seen downward pressure through the majority of the European morning session. Even now, Euribor futures are down up to 6 ticks through the Reds while SONIA futures are largely flat on the day now. Eurodollar futures remain below yesterday's close by about 2.5-4.0 ticks across the curve.
- No real headline drivers to mark the turnaround today, it just seems that things became a little overstretched across global fixed income generally, with the moves mirrored in bond curves.
- Markets now price in 44bp for the May Fed meeting, 84bp by June, 146bp by September (4 meetings) and 190bp by year-end (6 meetings).
- In the Eurozone, September now is priced for 22bp (down from being fully priced a few days ago) while by year-end 47bp are priced. The latter has stayed fairly stable, it seems to be more Reds that are moving around.
- UK markets price in 34bp for the May MPC meeting, with 104bp priced by September (4 meetings) and 131bp priced by year-end.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.