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Off the lows but still pricing a lot

STIR FUTURES

STIR futures hit their lows of the day around 11:00GMT / 7:00ET today, with SONIA futures and Euribor futures having seen downward pressure through the majority of the European morning session. Even now, Euribor futures are down up to 6 ticks through the Reds while SONIA futures are largely flat on the day now. Eurodollar futures remain below yesterday's close by about 2.5-4.0 ticks across the curve.

  • No real headline drivers to mark the turnaround today, it just seems that things became a little overstretched across global fixed income generally, with the moves mirrored in bond curves.
  • Markets now price in 44bp for the May Fed meeting, 84bp by June, 146bp by September (4 meetings) and 190bp by year-end (6 meetings).
  • In the Eurozone, September now is priced for 22bp (down from being fully priced a few days ago) while by year-end 47bp are priced. The latter has stayed fairly stable, it seems to be more Reds that are moving around.
  • UK markets price in 34bp for the May MPC meeting, with 104bp priced by September (4 meetings) and 131bp priced by year-end.

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