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Official PMIs On Tap Tomorrow, Market May Continue To Look Through Softer Outcomes

CHINA DATA

China official PMIs print tomorrow. Not surprisingly, the market looks for weaker outcomes, particularly for the non-manufacturing print. The market consensus for this outcome is 45.0 (range of 38-47.5), with November coming in at 46.7. The consensus for the manufacturing PMI is 47.8 (range of 42 to 50.2), with the prior outcome at 48.0.

  • Activity was likely weighed on surging domestic covid case numbers in the month. Although as has been the case since China shifted away from CZS, market sentiment hasn't been impacted by disappointing data outcomes.
  • Also, the Standard Chartered China SME survey saw a slight improvement in the headline outcome for December, nudging up to 49.31 from 49.16 in November, see the chart below.
  • There are also signs of improving high frequency data in cities where covid cases have peaked, so the market may keep its focus on the 2023 outlook, rather than any disappointment from tomorrow's data.

Fig 1: Standard Chartered China SME Index Versus The Non-Manufacturing PMI

Source: Standard Chartered/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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