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Free AccessOfficial PMIs On Tap Tomorrow, Market May Continue To Look Through Softer Outcomes
China official PMIs print tomorrow. Not surprisingly, the market looks for weaker outcomes, particularly for the non-manufacturing print. The market consensus for this outcome is 45.0 (range of 38-47.5), with November coming in at 46.7. The consensus for the manufacturing PMI is 47.8 (range of 42 to 50.2), with the prior outcome at 48.0.
- Activity was likely weighed on surging domestic covid case numbers in the month. Although as has been the case since China shifted away from CZS, market sentiment hasn't been impacted by disappointing data outcomes.
- Also, the Standard Chartered China SME survey saw a slight improvement in the headline outcome for December, nudging up to 49.31 from 49.16 in November, see the chart below.
- There are also signs of improving high frequency data in cities where covid cases have peaked, so the market may keep its focus on the 2023 outlook, rather than any disappointment from tomorrow's data.
Fig 1: Standard Chartered China SME Index Versus The Non-Manufacturing PMI
Source: Standard Chartered/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.