Offsetting Risks Keep Crude Rangebound

Crude is relatively unchanged so far today after strong gains yesterday to recovery much of the losses from late last week as ongoing Middle East tensions and Red Sea attacks continue to add to supply concerns.

• Brent APR 24 up 0.4% at 82.83$/bbl
• WTI APR 24 up 0.3% at 77.85$/bbl
• Gasoil MAR 24 up 0.9% at 848.25$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.05$/bbl at -4.98$/bbl
• Talks continue to try to reach an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal which US president Biden hopes to have start by next Monday. But public comments suggest Israel and Hamas continued to take positions far apart.
• Strong travel in China over the Lunar New Year holiday has driven an increase in demand supporting crude purchases by refiners. US refiners are also trying to recover from the low run rates seen in recent weeks before a second, smaller refinery maintenance period peak in April.
• Offsetting risks from Middle East tensions, OPEC+ production cuts and global demand uncertainty are helping maintain crude within a range as BofA forecast Brent to average $80/bbl this year.
  • Brent APR 24-MAY 24 up 0.03$/bbl at 0.89$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.09$/bbl at 3.28$/bbl
• Crude backwardation remains strong with time spreads holding just below the highest since October from last week suggesting tight market conditions.
• Diesel and gasoline cracks have found some support after the pull back in diesel since early in February.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 30.25$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.3$/bbl at 36.05$/bbl