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Offshore TRY Funding Costs Surge; 5-Year CDS Spikes

TURKEY
  • Turkey's O/N lira offshore funding costs have surged to above 400%.
  • The surge higher is likely evidence that the Turkish authorities are clamping down on offshore TRY supply - effectively raising TRY borrowing costs to pinch the profitability of short positions - thereby containing the USD/TRY rally post-election results. The tool has been used a handful of times in recent years during phases of acute TRY weakness.
  • In addition, Turkey's 5-year credit default swap rose over 100bps from Friday's levels to above 600bps, the biggest jump since March.
  • Another indicator worth watching: the growing spread between the official USD/TRY spot rate and the unofficial Grand Bazaar rate. Shows further increase in local FX demand, despite the relatively contained official spot rate. This provides further evidence of intervention measures being used by authorities to contain any fallout in TRY (see below):

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