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Offshore Yuan Gains, China's Inflation Figures Miss Expectations

CNH

Spot USD/CNH took a dip after the release of China's inflation data, with both main indices missing expectations. Consumer price growth slowed to 1.5% Y/Y in December, while factory gate inflation eased to +10.3%, leaving policymakers more space to implement pro-growth initiatives.

  • Note that the PBOC earlier set their yuan reference rate at CNY6.3658, 13 pips below sell-side estimate, but the release of inflation data clearly took precedence.
  • Spot USD/CNH trades -60 pips at CNH6.3714 as we type, printing its worst levels in a week. Further losses past Jan 5 low of CNH6.3660 would give bears a green light for targeting Dec 31 low of CNH6.3379. Conversely, a rebound above Jan 6/Nov 26 highs of CNH6.3976/99 would give bulls some retrieve.
  • Later this week, focus will move to China's trade balance, due Friday. Headline trade surplus is expected to widen a tad.
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