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OIES Raise 2024 Brent Forecast to $82.9/bbl on Market Deficit

OIL

OIES have raised the Brent forecast from $82.1/bbl to $82.9/bbl in 2024 with 2025 at $79.4/bbl due to extended OPEC+ cuts and robust non-OECD demand according to the latest Oil Monthly report.

  • The market balance has flipped into a deficit of 400kb/d this year to pressure stocks and expected to raise Brent to the mid-to-high $80s in Q4.
  • A 1.3mb/d deficit is now forecast for Q2, following a 380kb/d deficit in Q1 before returning to a marginal 40kb/d surplus in H2 and a 390kb/d surplus in 2025. OECD commercial stocks are unlikely to build significantly this year.
  • Global oil demand forecast remains unchanged at 1.5mb/d in 2024 and 1.1mb/d in 2025. Non-OECD demand, particularly India and China, to start strong before softening in H2 while weak OECD demand growth remains flat for the year. Diesel/gasoil demand in 2024 is scaled back.
  • Global supply growth forecast drops by 360kb/d to 930kb/d in 2024 but increased by 390kb/d to 1.9mb/d in 2025. OPEC crude growth in 2024 is reduced by 420kb/d to -170kb/d while non-OPEC crude growth is downgraded by 100kb/d to 830kb/d. US crude growth is revised lower by 120kb/d to 360kb/d.

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