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OIL: Analysts Split on Whether OPEC Return Supply as Planned in Q4

OIL
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Analysts are split on whether OPEC will reduce its output cuts as planned from October, according to Bloomberg. 

  • A survey of traders, refiners and analysts showed 12 respondents expect OPEC will proceed, 11 expect it will postpone the output increase and 5 expect either a partial increase, or contingent on lasting supply disruption in Libya.
  • OPEC provisionally plans to return 543kb/d of supply during Q4 but the group has previously stressed the policy remains flexible if the market appears to be oversupplied.
  • Several OPEC+ delegates said they currently expect the hikes to go ahead, though at least one argued for a need to delay.
  • The market outlook has seen bearish pressure in recent weeks with focus on soft demand growth in China, raising the prospects that OPEC many need to adjust the current plans.
  • Some analysts forecast the global oil markets could switch from a deficit to a surplus next quarter if OPEC returns supply as planned.
  • The next Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee isn’t until Oct. 2 but further clarity could be expected in early September when new Saudi OSPs and allocations are announced.
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Analysts are split on whether OPEC will reduce its output cuts as planned from October, according to Bloomberg. 

  • A survey of traders, refiners and analysts showed 12 respondents expect OPEC will proceed, 11 expect it will postpone the output increase and 5 expect either a partial increase, or contingent on lasting supply disruption in Libya.
  • OPEC provisionally plans to return 543kb/d of supply during Q4 but the group has previously stressed the policy remains flexible if the market appears to be oversupplied.
  • Several OPEC+ delegates said they currently expect the hikes to go ahead, though at least one argued for a need to delay.
  • The market outlook has seen bearish pressure in recent weeks with focus on soft demand growth in China, raising the prospects that OPEC many need to adjust the current plans.
  • Some analysts forecast the global oil markets could switch from a deficit to a surplus next quarter if OPEC returns supply as planned.
  • The next Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee isn’t until Oct. 2 but further clarity could be expected in early September when new Saudi OSPs and allocations are announced.