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OIL: Asia Oil Imports Edge Higher in Sept. but YTD Volumes Down 0.2mbpd y/y

OIL
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Asia's imports of crude rose marginally to 27.05mbpd in September from 26.47mbpd in August, according to LSEG data with a drop in China arrivals offset by an increase to India.

  • China arrivals fell to 11.43mbpd from 11.61mbpd, while India's imports rose to 4.94mbbpd from 4.71mbpd.
  • Year to date imports to Asia, which accounts for about two-thirds of global seaborne crude imports, were down 200kbpd y/y to 26.7mbpd.
  • The volumes suggest growth in Asia is behind the OPEC global forecast of 2.03mbpd demand growth in 2024, of which 650kbpd is expected from China and 270kbpd from India. Total demand however also depends on domestic oil production, inventory changes and net refined product supplies.
  • OPEC has so far maintained demand growth forecast above market consensus for next year as the group plans to return production to the market from December.
  • Asia's crude imports could rise later this year supported by lower crude prices due to a lag of up to two months for cargoes deliveries and as refiners ramp up ahead of peak winter demand.

 

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Asia's imports of crude rose marginally to 27.05mbpd in September from 26.47mbpd in August, according to LSEG data with a drop in China arrivals offset by an increase to India.

  • China arrivals fell to 11.43mbpd from 11.61mbpd, while India's imports rose to 4.94mbbpd from 4.71mbpd.
  • Year to date imports to Asia, which accounts for about two-thirds of global seaborne crude imports, were down 200kbpd y/y to 26.7mbpd.
  • The volumes suggest growth in Asia is behind the OPEC global forecast of 2.03mbpd demand growth in 2024, of which 650kbpd is expected from China and 270kbpd from India. Total demand however also depends on domestic oil production, inventory changes and net refined product supplies.
  • OPEC has so far maintained demand growth forecast above market consensus for next year as the group plans to return production to the market from December.
  • Asia's crude imports could rise later this year supported by lower crude prices due to a lag of up to two months for cargoes deliveries and as refiners ramp up ahead of peak winter demand.

 

Keep reading...Show less