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Oil at $80-85/bbl Medium to Long Term: Wood Mackenzie

OIL

Oil markets could breach $100/bbl in the short term but Wood Mackenzie forecasts $80-85/bbl in the medium to long term according to Sushant Gupta, research director of Asia refining at Wood Mackenzie.

  • “I think we could see $100/bbl oil in Q4 in the short term. Number 1 because of Q4 demand growth is expected to be stronger than the previous quarters, number 2 is OPEC+ holding supply until December this year and the third reason is Russia banning the exports of diesel and gasoline to international markets.” Gupta said.
  • “It means lots of volumes from Russia will need to be made up by refiners elsewhere, they will run more crude and push up prices further.” he added.
  • “We are seeing bullish factors more in the short term but let’s not forget on the surplus side OPEC+ holding over 4mn bpd of spare capacity between Saudi, Kuwait and UAE that can be brought to the market in less than a months’ time.” Gupta added.
  • “Q1 will bring lower seasonal demand and we [Wood Mackenzie] expect prices to fall during that time Longer to mid-range term we are targeting $80-85/bbl “ Gupta said.
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