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OIL: Brent Could Surge 15/bbl on Iran Oil Infrastructure Strike: Barclays

OIL
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A potential strike by Israel on Iran’s oil infrastructure could result in a sustained 1mb/d of disruption in supplies and drive a rally in oil prices of at least $15/bbl, according to Barclays cited by Reuters.

  • "A potential Israeli attack on Iranian oil upstream or export infrastructure poses a binary outcome for oil markets, as it could reduce the elevated spare capacity overhang on prices while inducing a significant geopolitical risk premium."
  • The Brent fair value estimate is $85/bbl for 2025.
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A potential strike by Israel on Iran’s oil infrastructure could result in a sustained 1mb/d of disruption in supplies and drive a rally in oil prices of at least $15/bbl, according to Barclays cited by Reuters.

  • "A potential Israeli attack on Iranian oil upstream or export infrastructure poses a binary outcome for oil markets, as it could reduce the elevated spare capacity overhang on prices while inducing a significant geopolitical risk premium."
  • The Brent fair value estimate is $85/bbl for 2025.