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OIL: Brent Expected at $86/bbl in Q3 Amid Market Deficit: Goldman Sachs

OIL

Goldman Sachs expects Brent to recover to $86/bbl in Q3, as the market gets pushed into deficit of 1.3mb/d.

  • Oil prices are expected to strengthen over the summer with healthy consumer activity and solid transportation and cooling demand.
  • The forecast range for Brent of $75-$90/bbl is maintained. Support comes from physical demand for oil, including from China and the US SPR as prices fall. OPEC also has the flexibility to delay, pause or reverse the plan to raise production if required.
  • The oil demand growth forecast for 2024 was cut by 0.2mb/d to 1.25mb/d but with a further recovery in jet fuel demand by 0.6mb/d this year.
  • Petrochemical-driven LPG and naphtha products to grow 0.4mb/d, and gasoline demand to grow 0.2mb/d
  • The average 2025 Brent forecast is unchanged at $82/bbl.
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