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OIL: Brent Forecast at $85.2/bbl in 2024 and $78.5/bbl in 2025: OIES

OIL

Brent is forecast at $85.2/bbl in 2024 and $78.5/bbl in 2025, according to the latest OIES Oil Monthly report with an average of $86.5/bbl in H2 2024 due to stock draws through year-end.

  • The oil market deficit forecast for 2024 has deepened by 340kb/d to -720kb/d while the surplus in 2025 has increased by 380kb/d to 740kb/d.
  • OPEC+ revisions have shifted the global balance into a 1.4mb/d deficit in 2H24.
  • The Q2 2025 – Q4 2025 surplus is forecast averaging 970kb/d assuming a 2.48mb/d increase in OPEC+ output from Sep-24 to Sep-25 and a 300kb/d higher UAE base.
  • Global oil demand growth for 2024 is revised down by 90kb/d to 1.5mb/d driven by the OECD underperformance in H1. China growth is forecast at 600kb/d and India at 215 kb/d. Demand growth for 2025 has been raised by 100kb/d to 1.4mb/d.
  • The global supply growth forecast for 2024 has been lowered by 720kb/d to 370kb/d and raised by 840kb/d to 2.9 mb/d in 2025, assuming changes to the agreed OPEC+ production path. Non-OPEC liquids supply growth is maintained at 1.1mb/d in both years.

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