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Policy
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Global Macro
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Dec 2024
MNI US Employment Insight: Soft Enough To Keep Fed Cutting
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: Jobs Data Green Lights Rate Cuts
OIL: Brent Forecast at $85.2/bbl in 2024 and $78.5/bbl in 2025: OIES
Brent is forecast at $85.2/bbl in 2024 and $78.5/bbl in 2025, according to the latest OIES Oil Monthly report with an average of $86.5/bbl in H2 2024 due to stock draws through year-end.
- The oil market deficit forecast for 2024 has deepened by 340kb/d to -720kb/d while the surplus in 2025 has increased by 380kb/d to 740kb/d.
- OPEC+ revisions have shifted the global balance into a 1.4mb/d deficit in 2H24.
- The Q2 2025 – Q4 2025 surplus is forecast averaging 970kb/d assuming a 2.48mb/d increase in OPEC+ output from Sep-24 to Sep-25 and a 300kb/d higher UAE base.
- Global oil demand growth for 2024 is revised down by 90kb/d to 1.5mb/d driven by the OECD underperformance in H1. China growth is forecast at 600kb/d and India at 215 kb/d. Demand growth for 2025 has been raised by 100kb/d to 1.4mb/d.
- The global supply growth forecast for 2024 has been lowered by 720kb/d to 370kb/d and raised by 840kb/d to 2.9 mb/d in 2025, assuming changes to the agreed OPEC+ production path. Non-OPEC liquids supply growth is maintained at 1.1mb/d in both years.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.