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OIL: China’s Demand Outlook Gloomier on Recent Indicators: Platts

OIL

More sluggish growth in China’s economy is a significant bearish concern for oil markets, including for US crude exports, Platts said in its Oil Market Podcast.

  • China’s GDP growth has been slowing. In Q2, GDP growth was 4.7%, down from 5.3% in Q1. 
  • “You've just seen every month after month, quarter after quarter, these sort of bearish revisions to the downside for the demand growth outlooks in China,” Platts analysts said.
  • Platts added that there a lot of the growth in China is in the services sector, which is less energy intensive, and will not trickle down into much additional oil demand.
  • China’s manufacturing PMI correlates well with diesel demand and has been in contraction, at 49.8 in July.
  • Meanwhile, cracks at independent refineries’ – with no access to export markets – are not showing a clear picture for stronger domestic demand.
  • Platts still expects a bounce in crude imports and demand from China later this year. However, a many early indicators are not pointing in the right direction.
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